But their decisions have not closed the door on this race. Rather, they have opened the opportunity for a new brand of politics to take root in Nebraska. I'm sure few of you doubt Scott Kleeb would make an excellent addition to the United States Senate, but allow me to take a moment to examine his chances in what is sure to be a difficult statewide campaign.
The Map:
How do you turn a 10-point congressional loss into a victory statewide? A basic formula for success is provided by the American Almanac of Politics in their description of the Senate race in 2000: "Nelson won 51%-49%, carrying the Omaha area 54%-46% and the Lincoln area 60%-39%; he lost the remaining half of the state 54%-46%".
Of course, that "remaining half of the state" includes not only the third district but most of the first as well. According to my own calculations, Ben Nelson received 109,726 of 241,468 votes in NE-03, or about 45.4%... more or less exactly Kleeb's result in 2006.
But as impressive as those numbers are, the two elections are not wholly comparable. While both Nelson and Kleeb were running in open seats for federal office, Nelson managed his victory in a presidential year with higher turnout overall (a traditionally difficult feat in ruby red Nebraska). In an effort to correct for this imbalance somewhat, I decided to measure both Democrats against each other rather than against their Republican opponents. The result is a clear geographical pattern represented on this series of maps:
As you can see, Kleeb generally outperformed Nelson in the most Republican parts of the state (specifically in the Panhandle and the Sandhills) while generally underperforming him in the more Democratic counties to the south and the east. This pattern isn't obviously explained by the differences between presidential and midterm elections, but they may be the result of depressed Democratic turnout due to the robo-calls controversy (highlighted here in red are the cities of Kearney and Hastings, where most of these calls were placed) or the effect of late-airing attack ads in the Lincoln market. What these maps suggest is Kleeb's potential for further growth even within the third district itself .Having proven viability in NE-03, Scott Kleeb has already overcome the highest hurdle any Nebraska Democrat must face. The race now depends on his potential in the remaining two districts, and on that front our outlook is especially promising. Let's not forget that Mike Johanns lost Lincoln in 1998 (when he ran as their sitting mayor!) and Omaha voted for a Democratic novice in 2006 over their own four term incumbent Congressman.
Low Expectations:
Look, I'm no elections expert, and I don't expect anyone to mistake me for one. I don't expect the information provided above will alter any perception among the mainstream press or the conservative blogosphere that this race is already lost. But that's just fine with me: I welcome any Republican to doubt us.
Republican confidence in a general election victory only increases the odds of a bloody and prolonged primary fight and decreases the chance that any national GOP money will be spent. Low expectations can buy time, time enough to lay the groundwork and build the momentum necessary for an upset to occur. Of course, all that is possible only if a third condition is met:
High Energy:
Kleeb can't do this alone. What we have before us is a challenge... and also an opportunity. An opportunity to take part in a generational shift in the way our politics work, a shift not unlike that experienced when Bob Kerrey ran in '82, or Chuck Hagel ran in '96. Our challenge is to commit to this race all the time, energy and resources necessary to make that change take hold.
That means volunteer hours. That means campaign donations. But that also means faith, trust and belief. Faith in our our neighbors to keep an open mind and not allow our state's conservative media convince them that this race is over. Trust that if we work hard for this cause that our efforts will be rewarded. And belief in the potential, not only of Scott Kleeb, but of Nebraska itself. Our potential for growth, our capacity for change.
We can make that happen. This can be our time to lead. We need only to get up and do it.
